FLHurricane.com: Tropical Storm Arlene in Bay of Campeche

8PM EDT 28 June 2011 Update
Tropical Storm Arlene has formed in the Bay of Campeche. The Government of Mexico has issued Tropical Storm Warnings from Barra de Nautla Northward to Bahia Algodones.

5PM EDT 28 June 2011 Update
Recon was able to find a low level center, however the NHC feels there isn't sufficient organization to warrant an upgrade to tropical depression status at this time. The probability is now rated at 90% likely over the next 48 hours. One small nudge will likely bring our first tropical system for the 2011 Atlantic season.

2PM EDT 28 June 2011 Update
Recon is now out in this system in the Bay of Campeche (95L) and based on early readings the National Hurricane Center has upped the chances for development to 70%. It's most likely time for development is tomorrow morning.

If it does it will have a relatively short time to develop beyond a depression, but it may be enough for Tropical Storm Watches/Warnings to go up for parts of Mexico.

Rain will likely be the biggest issue with this system, those in Mexico and extreme South Texas will want to monitor the situation.

7AM EDT 28 June 2011 Update
The system in the Bay of Campeche is still being disrupted by moderate shear, and no clear low level circulation is apparent yet.

Chances for anything more than a depression remain very low, and development chances still are highest for tomorrow, not too terribly long before it reaches the coast in Mexico. Recon may be called off later today if convection does not increase.

6PM EDT 27 June 2011 Update
The Bay of Campeche system has now been designated invest area 95L, and model runs are beginning. Thoughts haven't changed much from this morning.

1Ie,
1. it's best chance of development is 12-24 hours before landfall.
2. It should make landfall along the southern coast near or south of Tampico.
3. It likely won't get beyond tropical depression stage, but depends on how quickly it can get together.

There is a recon flight scheduled for tomorrow, and the current development chance is at 30% for the next 48 hours.

Alvarado, Mexico Radar
Altamira Mexico Radar

Flhurricane recorded Mexican Radar Loop

Weather at Tampico, Mexico
Weather at Poza Rica, Mexico

Original Update
This morning there is a disturbance moving off the Yucatan and into the Bay of Campeche that has remained disorganized, although there remains some chance for development (20%). It is likely that this system remains weak due to hostile shear from the west that has increased slightly. These upper level winds are not conductive for development. But they may lighten up tomorrow.

The window for development will be closer to Wednesday and if it does the system likely will be within 12-16 hours of landfall at the time. The area of landfall would be near Tampico in Mexico. If it develops at all, the best chances are for it to remain a tropical depression, but there is a chance it could start to get together a little more right before landfall and be a relatively low end tropical storm.

Right now it is disorganized and It has not been classified as even an investigation area yet, but may be done later today.

In short this disturbance, worth watching if you are in the area, is in all likelihood just a rain maker.

It will be watched this during the week.

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Edited by danielw (Tue Jun 28 2011 08:00 PM)

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