FLHurricane.com: Tropical "Blob" over S. Florida

Hmmmm, a sign of things to come??

On one hand, am always looking at possible indications of where I believe the long wave pattern and TUTT conditions may tip off areas of development and general motion for the upcoming early Hurricane Season. And, if this were a few weeks later, this system over S. Florida might be a bit more interesting. Couple other observations though, most of the Gulf SST's and much of the Central & Western Atlantic SST's are both unimpressive and cool. Also, GFS 200 mb. forecast would indicate no let up in pretty strong upper air conditions, even in the lower latitudes.

Am looking at the latest 12Z GFS, and looks little a very small window for perhaps a weak surface low to form in the near term. Upper air is not good ( accept to the north and east ) and looks to become less difluent Monday night/Tue. am. Also, water vapor would indicate that subsidence appears to be on the increase in the Central/Southern Gulf. This bit of dryer air wrapping in from the S.W. and West won't be helping the cause. There could be a case for some type of center appearing on radar East of Marathon, however one could make a case for at least one more point of turning and rather think these areas to be more or less transient areas of vorticity. My guess is that a broader "sloppy" ( and very weak ) low may become slightly more evident to appear to cover the majority of the middle/lower keys. However, would guess that such a surface reflection would drift or move generally westward and with upper winds hardly permitting convection to wrap around the west side, this would seem to hinder much opportunity for deepening.

Gotta be rough for local mets to forecast, given the relative range in conditions over S. Florida. Here in W. Broward, we have no doubt received a minimum of 3" over the last 36 hours. Radar appears to show the northern extent of the present rain shield to be moving south and temporarily impacting points north of Ft. Lauderdale less than earlier. I think this overal system will start to take on an increasingly stretched east/west orientation by sometime late Monday and start to lose most of its sub-tropical appearance by early Tuesday. Starting now, I could see parts of Miami-Dade/upper Keys may get 4-6" more rain, but N. Broward less than 2" and lower Keys even less.

Post Extras