Invest 93L strikes me as a rather interesting pre-season system, perhaps capable of spawning a sub-tropical cyclone. And just maybe we'll even have a named system before the official start of Hurricane Season, still a couple weeks away.
Although cloud top temps have warmed slightly these past few hours, this is the normal course of events during the so-called diurnal convective minimum cycle.
If the wind shear does not become prohibitive, I would expect a big increase in the amount of deep and sustained convection overnight, and we might have a named storm as early as tomorrow, as the system is currently only 5 kts. shy of the requisite 35 kt. threshold for a named system.
And being so close to land, the 'inner core' convection is already showing up quite nicely on the Wilmington, NC Doppler Radar. Of interest to note here are the cumulus 'streets' beginning to wrap tightly around the low level circulation center in the NW-ern semicircle.
Wilmington, NC Dopplar Radar Loop
Not only will this aid the NHC forecasters in determining a more precise center fix for their advisories on this developing system (should they become necessary), but provides an excellent on-going assessment of the intensity of the convection, and the degree of convective organization.
It's always interesting to note the degree of correlation between the animated satellite loop signatures and the progressive Doppler radar reflectivities over time.
All in all, Invest 93L is certainly a system to keep an eye on, primarily for the Outer Banks of North Carolina and points northwards, as the consensus of the early model runs indicates that, once 93L finishes meandering towards the SW as it currently is doing, it should begin a path towards 'recurvature' as early as tonight or early tomorrow.
Should Invest 93L become a named storm, it will be given the name 'Alberto'. Stay tuned!
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"Don't Get Stuck on Stupid" - General Honore, following Hurricane Katrina
Edited by CoconutCandy (Sun May 20 2012 10:46 AM)
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Invest 93L an Interesting Preseason System
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