cieldumort
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
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Re: Outlook for 2012
Mon May 28 2012 08:08 PM
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Greetings, everyone. I hope you are having a safe and healthy 2012.
My best guess for 2012 is for 14 storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 majors.
It is worth noting that we have had two named storms, already.
Despite these roughly "average" totals (at least since 1995 has been concerned), I expect a greater chance for landfalls, including higher than average odds of US landfalls.
If I am right, and we have fewer names, but more landfalls than usual, that means that a larger percentage of 2012 named systems than usual in the Atlantic basin will impact land - which would just go to show how average (and of course even below average totals) do not necessarily result in average to below average impacts.
My rationale for 14, 6 and 3 may easily be busted - and perhaps by a lot, should:
1) an El Nino begins prior to September (expect my guess could be much too high in that case) , OR
2) we actually slide back into a La Nina phase by September (expect my guess could be much too low in that case).
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