The entire dynamic has changed considerably since yesterday at this time. Whereas the EGOM was dominated by the ULL over GA yesterday which created hostile upper flow, the atmosphere over the disturbance this A.M is evidencing an upper anti-cyclonic flow as the ULL lifts out. There is some evidence of a low level cyclonic circulation immediately N of the Yucatan at 22.5/87. Certainly the convection south and east of this position is being enhanced this morning. I would not at all be surprised that chances for development increase to moderate levels in the 2:00p.m. TWO and an "invest" established soon.
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Generated May 18, 2024, 2:24:36 AM EDT
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center