As stated in the other forum...I am leaning toward a GFS solution and think the way ot is to the NE. However, the ULL over N. Mexico is now in So. Texas; but, the short wave is still progressing SE'ly through the lower mid west. The surface feature is not moving much at this time, and how far north it drifts in the next 24-36 hours will determine if it stalls or catches the ride to the NE. Intensity: If westerly shear relaxes and it lingers over warm GOM waters it could get frisky, but to early to tell.
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Generated May 18, 2024, 12:55:54 AM EDT
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