Remember that the initial model runs are based on a weak system that would tend to be influenced by the low-level flow, i.e., easterlies shoving the weak system toward the west. If the system does intensify, the mid to upper level flow would have more of an influence on the eventual movement and the models would adjust to reflect that influence. ED
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Generated May 18, 2024, 4:34:35 AM EDT
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center