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danielw Moderator Reged: Wed Posts: 3525 Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W) Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge       Thu Jun 21 2012 10:29 PM Edit   Reply   Quote   Quick Reply   Yes this is several hours old. But the entire model suite is discussed. Very good Discussion! MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 235 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE BIGGEST QUESTION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LIES WITH THE GFS FORECAST: IS THE PIECEMEAL EVOLUTION OF THE LOW PRES SYSTEM SEEN IN MANY OF THE GFS FORECAST RUNS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS A FUNCTION OF THE CURRENT UNORGANIZED NATURE OF THE SYSTEM OR OF GRID-SCALE FEEDBACK PROBLEMS IN THE MODEL? LOOKING BACK AT THE LAST 2 DAYS WORTH OF 00Z AND 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGINNING AT 00Z/21...THE ECMWF IS SHOWING CONSIDERABLY BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW PRES SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF MEXICO THAN THE GFS. FOR THE VALID TIME 25/12Z... THESE GFS RUNS VARY AS WIDELY AS A CONSOLIDATED 998 MB LOW NEAR 27N85W TO A MORE STRUNG OUT TROUGH STRETCHED FROM A 1001 MB ATLC LOW NEAR 29N79W THROUGH FL TO 1003 MB LOW PRES NEAR 25N85W AND INTO THE SW GULF. THE NEW 12Z GFS CARRIES THE LOW ACROSS FL BY THIS TIME...WITH A 1003 MB LOW NEAR DAYTONA BEACH. THE ECMWF RUNS VALID AT THE SAME TIME...25/12Z...AGREE ON A LOW CENTER IN THE CENTRAL GULF SOMEWHERE FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN 85W AND 91W. THE 21/00Z ECMWF HAS STRAYED FROM THE EARLIER RUNS BY DEEPENING THE SYSTEM MORE RAPIDLY BY THIS TIME. A QUICK GLANCE AT THE NEW 12Z ECMWF SHOWS A SLIGHT WESTWARD TREND THROUGH SUN. UNFORTUNATELY...THE NEW 12Z NOGAPS...CMC...GFS...AND UKMET ARE SHOWING MORE SPREAD IN THEIR SOLUTIONS THAN THE RUNS AVAILABLE THIS MORNING. BY 25/12Z THE NOGAPS AND UKMET ARE IN THE W GULF AND THE CMC IS IN THE N CENTRAL GULF WITH ONLY THE GFS STRUNG OUT ACROSS FL. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE FLIP-FLOPPING GFS...ITS TOUGH TO COUNT OUT THE IDEA OF ENERGY SHEARING NE ALONG THE UPPER TROUGH PASSING N OF THE LOW. THIS FORECAST SCENARIO WAS AGREED UPON BY NHC AND HPC DURING THE MEDium Range CONference CALL. THE 06Z GEFS MEAN HOLDS THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF...BUT ALLOWS ENERGY TO PASS NE INTO THE SW N ATLC WITH WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING THERE BEGINNING SUN NIGHT. THIS WAS THE PREFERRED SOLutioN FOR THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. Post Extras

Entire topic Subject Posted by Posted on Debby Forecast Lounge Ed Dunham Thu Jun 21 2012 10:29 PM Re: Debby Forecast Lounge Ed Dunham   Tue Jun 26 2012 01:52 PM Re: Debby Forecast Lounge berrywr   Tue Jun 26 2012 04:12 PM Re: Debby Forecast Lounge MikeC   Tue Jun 26 2012 08:34 PM Re: Debby Forecast Lounge Ed Dunham   Tue Jun 26 2012 10:25 PM Re: Debby Forecast Lounge DaViking   Tue Jun 26 2012 11:35 PM Re: Debby Forecast Lounge DaViking   Wed Jun 27 2012 03:02 AM Re: Debby Forecast Lounge dolfinatic   Wed Jun 27 2012 03:30 AM Re: Debby Forecast Lounge dolfinatic   Wed Jun 27 2012 04:48 AM Re: Debby Forecast Lounge JoshuaK   Wed Jun 27 2012 08:29 AM Re: Debby Forecast Lounge doug   Wed Jun 27 2012 08:37 AM Re: Debby Forecast Lounge berrywr   Wed Jun 27 2012 01:34 PM Re: Debby Forecast Lounge HeadacheslayerInFL   Wed Jun 27 2012 11:29 AM Re: Debby Forecast Lounge Lamar-Plant City   Wed Jun 27 2012 02:16 PM Re: Debby Forecast Lounge GlenJohnson   Wed Jun 27 2012 08:01 PM Re: Debby 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