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MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
235 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
ELONGATED MONSOONAL LIKE CIRCULATION PERSISTING ACROSS THE GULF
THIS MORNING...WITH MAJORITY OF WEATHER AND WIND CONFINED TO E
SIDE OF CIRCULATION. STRONG SLY FLOW ON THIS E SIDE WAS VERIFIED
BY SEVERAL SHIP OBS AND WITH BUOY 42003 FLUCTUATING MID 20'S TO
BRIEF MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS...AND SEAS UP TO 15 FT.
BASED ON
THIS AND VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THIS AREA...AND WITH
GLOBAL MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON GALE FORCE WINDS IN Boundary Layer...HAVE
ISSUED GALE WARNING FOR THE E SEMICIRCLE OF LOW THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SPREADING ACROSS N QUADRANT THIS EVENING. AS
WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH THIS MONSOONAL TYPE EVOLUTION...GALE
FORCE OR STRONGEST WINDS INITIALLY WILL REMAIN ON PERIPHERY OF
THE CIRCULATION...AND GRADUALLY FILL IN ACROSS N AND NW QUADS AS
MOISTURE WRAPS IN TOWARD THE CENTER.

LLVL SWIRL CLEARLY EVIDENT
IN VIS IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE SHED TO THE SW WITH
ANOTHER CENTER LIKELY TO BECOME THE DOMINANT CENTER TO THE NE OF
THIS SWIRL...AND CLOSER TO THE CONVECTION.

ALTHOUGH ALL THE
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW ELONGATED STRETCHING OF MOISTURE FIELD OF
THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...ONLY THE GFS REMAINS
ADAMANT IN SHEARING OUT SIGNIFICANT LLVL VORTICITY TO THE
NE...WITH GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM THE 00Z RUN PRETTY EVENLY
DISTRIBUTED ALL ALONG THE MOISTURE AXIS BY 96 HOURS.
HAVE THUS
CREATED WIND AND PRES GRIDS STRONGLY WEIGHTED ON ECMWF...AND
USED A 50-50 BLEND OF ECWAVE AND WWIII FOR SEAS.

IT MAY TAKE A
FULL 48 HOURS FOR THIS SYSTEM TO ATTAIN A TRULY TROPICAL TC
APPEARANCE...BUT GALE FORCE OR NEAR GALE WINDS...WITH SHOWERS
SQUALLS AND TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE E AND NE PORTION
OF THIS SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AND SPREAD ACROSS THE NE
AND N CENTRAL GULF COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL ZONES. BUOY 42003
NOW REPORTING 14 FT SEAS AT 9 SECONDS WHICH WILL PROPAGATE INTO
THE N CENTRAL GULF COASTLINES...AND COMBINE WITH STRONG E TO SE
WIND FLOW FOR HIGH WATER LEVELS LEADING TO SOME COASTAL FLOODING
AND EROSION.

INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES GULF COAST SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

Edited by danielw (Sat Jun 23 2012 02:51 PM)

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