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... it appears that the broad LLC with these embedded swirls may now in fact be in the process of passing the torch to the northeasternmost swirl. Recon passing through just found a lower pressure than the first pass through what was arguably the primary LLC not one hour ago. Sloppy system, but probably not so sloppy as to preclude an upgrade to TD, at a minimum, imho.

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Ciel, just as you indicated above...., this is ultimately why I see the GFS solution as more or less ultimately "playing out". Really is fascinating watching both - how 96L has continued to evolve, and how the models have attempting to guess "how" 96L will evolve. While the prior 0Z and this mornings' 12Z model runs have practically all other models (especially the EURO) depict nearly immediate development and then a west motion to eventually impact Texas, the GFS has stubbornly predicted a less deep cyclone to evenually move easward and eventually out to sea.

Models are based on on initialized point and then to "follow the bouncing ball" with of course the net outcome being the longer term location and intensity. Where I think the other models have at least thus far gotten it wrong, is that an ultimate westward push of a tropical system would need be based upon 3 things, 1st: Having a vertically coherant tropical cyclone, 2nd: Upper level conditions to remain conducive for such a tropical system to maintain itself or strengthen, and 3rd: based upon the prior 2 points, to have mid level steering then in place to push the system westward ( or WSW'ward ). Well, thus far near term models do anticipate the U.S. Plains High to build eastward, however 96L up to this point seems to have migrated north and east over the prior 2-3 days. Even though upper level winds have relaxed a little and turned more southerly (than the prior westerly), I do not believe it is yet vertically developed, nor does the upper low cutting off in the W. Gulf seem to be dropping to the south to enchance 96L's west side outflow.

My guess at outcome? Probably a Special Subtropical Storm Advisory between now and 5:00pm, followed by gradual moderately improved upper air conditions that will result in Debby being named "Tropical" finally perhaps tomorrow or Monday at some point farther North and East of present location. Then given its moderate strength, less than perfect upper conditions, and Northeast'ward relocation, for Debbie to stall somewhere along the N.E. Gulf (Florida) coastline with perhaps 45-55mph winds, than possibly pushed S.E. ahead of the advancing mid level ridge, and then weaken over N. Central Fla while the mid level energy slips to the northeast. (If a stronger Debbie were to develop, only then might a 1985 "Elena like" motion towards the west perhaps occur)

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