I have been alerted to a possible track change in the 12Z models. The GFS, Canadian and UKMET are now indicating a possible track toward the Florida Big Bend area. GFS and Canadian are now faster with the movement and that would place Debby ahead of the trough.
Waiting to see what the ECMWF shows in it's 12Z run. (Should be out in a little over two hours.)
My personal opinion is that of Lois'. The major portion of the storm is near or at landfall in the Pensacola / Appalachee Bay area. I'm basing this on storm symmetry and where the CoC would normally be located.
The LLC is still displaced to the west-southwest of the major convection. It had tried to wrap convection at first light but something in the main storm disrupted the process. Most likely an outflow boundary or something similar.
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Generated May 18, 2024, 6:36:26 AM EDT
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