cieldumort
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
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Area of Concern - Hurricane Ernesto
Mon Jul 30 2012 03:12 AM
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After a lull we now have two distinct tropical waves approaching the Caribbean. As of this entry, the nearest is centered around 14N 62.5W, and is encountering strong shear. The second, which is accompanied by a surface low, is centered near 9.5N 34.5W, and in addition to being the more vigorous of the two, is also enjoying slightly favorable upper level winds. This second feature has been tagged Invest 99L. The estimated center location of 99L noted above is a rough approximation, and subject to change.
Presently, Invest 99L is fairly disorganized, but has been becoming somewhat less so overnight. Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be running about 25MPH, with a minimum pressure of 1010mb. The feature consists of a robust tropical wave with a discernible surface low, and is triggering isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Slow development, if any, is the most probable outcome, thus should 99L not develop within the next 3 or so days it could then have a chance to become a named storm if in the Caribbean. Development sooner rather than later would encourage, but not guarantee, a pull more to the northwest, or north, which could result in a course more towards the Greater Antilles, or even out to sea .
(Updated to reflect new thread title and hurricane status. )
Edited by cieldumort (Tue Aug 07 2012 02:47 PM)
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