Ernesto has slowed his forward speed just slightly since yesterday. Whether it's in response to the ridge to the north or the area of dry air ahead of Ernesto it's really hard to tell right now. I still see a tight clustering of the GFDL and HWRF hurricane models. With an extrapolated landfall in the Pensacola,FL to Gulfport,MS area.
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Generated May 18, 2024, 12:22:04 AM EDT
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center