FLHurricane.com: Area of Concern

While visible satellite imagery does show an improved convective structure for TS Ernesto this morning, the system is still decoupled with the mid level center displaced to the north of the surface center. Yesterday morning at 05/12Z Ernesto was located at 15N 76W and the storm was moving to the west with a forecast for a west northwest movement. This morning at 06/12Z the center was located at 15.2N 81.0W with a movement to the west and a continued forecast by the NHC for a movement to the west northwest. At 06/13Z, visible satellite confirms that Ernesto remains on a track to the west - a motion that will bring Ernesto to a landfall along or just inland of the north coast of Honduras later this evening as a Tropical Storm.

Weather at Puerto Lempira, Honduras

Weather at Roatan Island, Honduras

Weather at Belize City, Belize

The following Warning/Watches have been posted:

"A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD
TO PUNTA SAL...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL TO PUNTA GRUESA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND CAYMAN
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAL TO THE
HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER
* THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM NORTH OF PUNTA GRUESA TO
TULUM"

A Tropical Storm Watch will probably be posted for Belize later today. With a more westward track, Ernesto may remain over land and eventually die out over the mountains of Guatemala. Heavy rains and flooding likely tonight through Wednesday in Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, Guatemala and eastern Mexico.
ED

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