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There is an upper low in the SW GOM and though inverted it does extend to the developing long wave trough along the Eastern US which an upper low over the Great Lakes is progged to deepen and cutoff; I expect the track to be adjusted a hair to the right...north but I don't see anything in the models to suggest that Ernesto will gain enough latitude to be turned north; the upper low over the SW GOM is progged to move west to inland Mexico in 48 hours and an upper ridge currently to the SW of Ernesto is expected to be out ahead of Ernesto backing the storm back to the west and west-southwest.

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What do you think the odds are it makes it far enough north to have a direct impact on Playa Del Carmen?

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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .

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