cieldumort
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
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Re: Area of Interest: Invest 94L
Sun Aug 19 2012 02:25 AM
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As of 2:00 AM EDT Aug. 19, Invest 94L is looking better and better, and it appears increasingly likely that the ninth tropical cyclone of the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season will be declared within 48 hours, and probably considerably sooner rather than later.
There is beginning to be some serious question tonight as to whether or not the area of maximum vorticity in the lowest portions of the atmosphere associated with 94L hasn't shifted quite a bit west-northwest, getting nestled with the most consistent area of deep convection, and is now establishing itself around 14.8N 35W, and heading west from there.
Microwave and scatterometer data will be coming in later that will hopefully clear things up. Provided that an incipient LLC is now much better paired with deeper convection, it is possible that TD9, or Isaac, could be confirmed by NHC later this morning.
As an aside, the 19/00Z model runs look as if they have a questionable handle on what is actually going on with 94L, and should probably all be taken with a grain of salt.
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