cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
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Area of Interest: Invest 95L
Sun Aug 19 2012 02:14 PM
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A convectively active surface trough which includes some of the remnant circulation of (former) Helene has become a little better defined over the extreme western Gulf of Mexico today. This feature has been tagged as Invest 95L.
95L is in a marginally favorable environment for further organization, currently centered roughly around 21.7N 98.1W. Movement is nearly stationary, or drifting on and offshore.
The estimated minimum central pressure within 95L is a relatively low 1005mb, and maximum sustained winds are running about 20 knots, but scatterometer measurements suggests that much higher gusts are occurring.
NHC currently gives this disturbance a 20% chance of becoming a numbered tropical cyclone within 48 hours.
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