Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Re: Area of Interest: Invest 94L
Tue Aug 21 2012 01:22 AM
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At 21/00Z, Invest 94L was located at 15.3N 48.8W with sustained winds estimated at 30 knots and pressure at 1009mb. The system has moved 8.2 degrees to the west in 24 hours - that equals to an average speed of 20.5 kts. When a system chugs along at that rate for an extended period of time, consolidation is difficult at best - especially for a system with a large overall area of circulation, and 94L is rather large. Although 94L should start to slow down, it will pass through the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday - and if it slows down enough, it could be a tropical cyclone at that time so folks in the Islands should continue to closely monitor this developing system.
This evening some new convection is firing near the center and in the band to the west but it still has a way to go. On Wednesday as the system approaches the Greater Antilles, it will slow down quite a bit which would allow a better opportunity for development/intensification - but it will also encounter increasing westerly shear at that time. It is worth noting that the GFS and the ECMWF have not been quick to ramp up this system for the past few days and the 21/00Z GFS run maintains a weaker cyclone for a few more days until it gets west of Hispaniola and near Jamaica/eastern Cuba early Saturday.
ED
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