Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Re: Outlook for 2013
Fri May 03 2013 12:13 PM
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The latest NOAA SST ENSO trends and projections (as of 4/28) still call for ENSO neutral conditions in the EASTPAC - in fact just about flat neutral along the 'zero' anomaly line for the remainder of the year. This keeps 2001, 1981 and 1996 as the best analog years - so no change from my earlier outlook for an above average season of activity at 13/8/3, i.e., 13 named storms, of which 8 will be hurricanes of which 3 will be major (Cat III or greater) hurricanes.
The start of the 2013 hurricane season is now less than a month away - which means that you have about 4 weeks (until this thread closes) to throw your seasonal predictions into the annual contest. Join the guesstimates. Remember to use exact numbers rather than a range of numbers - it makes it easier to determine who had the best guess at the end of the season. ED
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