Hello - some personal obs:
Low SAL in its immediate vicinity and ahead of its current trajectory; large plume of SAL lurks N, however, so not much wiggle room.
Despite low SAL, dry air alone does encircle the Invest envelope. This can be overcome by rigorous internal processes associate with quasi-coupled ocean/air consistent with TS modeling.
Shear is low. There are moderate easterlies in the mid and upper levels in the region of the Invest, however, the Invest's movement along with those vectors is making for a bit of SRS favorable environment, and low relative shear.
Centroid blob of convection is nearly collocated with the perceived axis of rotation associated with at least the mid levels. According to http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters.html ...they do not have a floater yet focused on Invest 95, so it is harder to make a more discrete analysis.
I do not believe the Atlantic is as conducive to early curving seaward, as the scenario of abundant subtropical ridging currently is ubiquitous around the Basin. There is a weakness of sort at around 50W, but Invest 95 is too far S [most likely] to be picked up by it. Moreover, most middle and extended guidance suggest that only after a brief and partial dismantling, the Bermuda ridge might restrengthen. It could turn out precarious if a TC were to mature as it neared 70W, so long as there is a block N, and notable weakness in the geopotential medium along 80 W. Those 2 circumstances are A and B in the list of getting a threat all the way across. Lots of time.
John
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Re: 95L (Central Atlantic Wave) Lounge
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