I expected it to be gone, but...The TUTT is the main feature now influencing the progress of the system. It has been meandering westerly for days and that motion seems to be continuing and it is slow. The TUTT has generated a general cyclonic flow effecting from South Florida and almost all of the north western Carribean, and the system should follow an upper level trough that extends from SE Florida over eastern Cuba to the north west and north,,,The TUTT is generating westerly shear as the system moves to the west. The persistence of a vortex in the face of several obstacles should be of concern, IMO, because if the system does slide NW to N and the effects of shear lessen and it then slows in forward motion, it could have a future if the vortex is not interdicted by interaction with land... The current WV picture suggests the system could avoid a great deal of land interaction by passing through between Haiti and Cuba if the upper trough catches it... We should not take our eyes off it...
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Generated May 1, 2024, 10:05:46 PM EDT
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