Actually I think that its suffering a little from some self-induced shear created by its rapid movement to the west. The low-level center has picked up some speed and is more or less racing ahead of the convection that is building through the mid and upper levels. Because of that separation from the primary convection and the strong ridge that continues to build to the north of the cyclone, the movement has become due west or more in line with the low-level easterlies. The outer feeder band to the west has actually become better formed in the past few hours and that would probably not happen if increasing westerly shear was hitting the system. With the rapid movement likely to continue for awhile, I suspect that Dorian will stay rather weak for a few days with its primary convection displaced just east of the low-level center. ED
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Generated May 17, 2024, 12:51:18 AM EDT
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