FLHurricane.com: Wave Still Disorganized (96L)

7:00 AM EDT 22 August 2014 Update
The inability for the wave to consolidate yesterday pushes it into another realm of uncertainty today, as the very broad system may be trying to recenter under or just east of Puerto Rico. Model runs have generally been out to sea overnight, but with a center position assumed to be barely just northeast of the Caribbean.

With still no solid development, the center relocation idea is one to watch for this morning as it would likely invalidate most of the model runs, although the GFS may have hinted at this. This is one of several reasons why models are only perhaps good in the short term for systems that have not yet developed. Especially in cases where a dominant center cannot be maintained.

Image note: the arrow for new center is off by a bit, should be more northeast, and the center on radar is north of the island, so it's more like a wave axis south to north currently.

Recon does fly again today. to help clear things up a bit.

So in short, keep watch on this area today, it's up to 60/80% development chances. It may just remain weak its entire existence, especially if it can't manage to consolidate. Continue to watch it today, things can change from hour to hour.

Even with the center relocation, odds favor it staying east of the US currently, but that is still uncertain.

7:45 AM EDT 21 August 2014 Update
The wave east of the Caribbean is at a 50% chance for development in the next 48 hours, and based on what the recon flight later today shows, it may or may not be upgraded today. This morning it looks a bit rough, so development may hold off for another day or two.

The system has moved a bit north in latitude and a lot of attention to model runs recently has ramped up some hype. The Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands will need to watch for some development, if it develops, for tropical storm type weather.

Beyond that is pure speculation, long range model runs have had very high rates of error for this system so far (based on the standard deviations) And until the system is well established using them is not a good idea, except to watch for trends. And right now the trends have swung wildly, and probably will for another day or two.

Also what, if any, interaction with the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola, is a factor.

The biggest drivers of the future position of this system are the trough in the western Atlantic and the high at the time it closes by, the global models are struggling with this right now, so I'd avoid reading into them too much.

Those in the Bahamas and Southeast should watch through the weekend to see what happens on this. The trend directions, as of this morning, keep it offshore, but those trends are still with a very low confidence. See the forecast lounge for more discussion and speculation.

Original Update
A tropical wave east of the Caribbean, although likely not to develop in the short term, has a moderate chance later in the week. 30% in the next 48 hours, and 50% over the next 5 days.

The dry air conditions are likely to put a damper on it, but being later in August those in the Caribbean will want to watch it. Long range models do put it as a potential threat to the northern Caribbean islands, including Cuba, and it possibly could enter the Gulf of Mexico. See the forecast lounge for more discussion on the longer range.

Despite that, it still has to develop around the dry air, which may let up Thursday or Friday somewhat, and enter into more favorable conditions.

More to come later, if necessary.

Another wave east of 96L also has a 20% chance for development over the next 5 days, but it is not being tracked as an invest currently. Model runs will be unreliable until a few runs after it develops, so don't read into long range forecasts this early.

If named, the storm would be called Cristobal.

French Antilles Radar recording of 96L approach

Barbados Radar recording of 96L approach

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