FLHurricane.com: Tropical Depression Four Forms near Turks and Caicos

9:30 PM EDT 23 August 2014 Update

Recon managed to find enough of a circulation to classify the low area as a depression with 35MPH winds.

And thusly also setting up the stage for Tropical Storm Warnings for the Southeastern Bahamas, and Turks and Caicos.

The official forecast tkaes it similar to the Euro and GFS runs along the Bahamas and then out to sea, with a large error possible. The typical official track cone size does not increase based on uncertainty, it's always the average error for all storms as of late. So there is still a possibility for the track to change, as the NHC has mentioned it being a low confidence forecast.

The 3 to 5 day forecast is based on model consensus that had quite a significant variation so expect continual track adjustments over the next few days as the cyclone slows down into 'drift' mode caused by weak steering currents. This slow drift is forecast for some of tomorrow and all of Monday.

However, everything as it stands currently odds really do favor the official track, so I can't think of a reason to not take it right now, except that it depends on how the actual storm progresses.

10:45 AM EDT 23 August 2014 Update
Recon did not find a closed circulation center, and with land interaction with Hispaniola, 96L is not likely to form today. Tomorrow is much more likely. Many models have shifted west this morning and are still split between a Florida landfall and out to sea (with varying intensity). So it remains important to keep watch through the weekend.

Based on the current trends, if it were to impact Florida, it would be during the day Wednesday.

Original Update
The wave near Hispaniola this morning continues to be somewhat disrupted by the island. The model paths have a wide spread, and overall conditions are hard to judge, as is the exact center location of the wave or wave axis.

Odds favor it remaining weak and out to sea, but have been trending westward over the last few runs and some of the fairly reliable models (GFS, HRWF) have suggested a Florida landfall, so confidence is low. Based on those, If the system were to make it toward Florida, it would likely be here during the day on Wednesday.

Recon is approaching the storm this morning.

For the future, several more reliable models keep it out to sea (euro, for example). So therefore until an actually storm develops, it is hard to say. Please pay attention to any advisories that the National Hurricane Center puts out, and pay attention to local media if something were to occur. Intensity is also an unknown factor (a relatively weak or strong storm).

If named, the storm would be called Cristobal, this is likely later today or tomorrow. Tomorrow is the better bet..

Keep close watch over the weekend. More speculation can be found in the forecast lounge.

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