MikeC
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Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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TD FOUR Lounge
Sat Jul 01 2017 06:44 PM
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This it the lounge to discuss models, and guesses as to where the wave currently in the east Atlantic will go and how strong it may get. The topic will be renamed if it becomes an invest or named storm.
As of 2PM on July 1st the chances for development from the National Hurricane are 40%.
Only the GFS is showing strong development right now, and misses it to the north of the Leeward Islands by a fair margin (18Z) and then near the Bahamas on July 13th. A category 4 hurricane over Jacksonville on the 16th, and and another landfall near Savannah, GA on the 17th.
The Euro has it weaker, although does develop it also, but keeps it well north of the leeward islands of the Caribbean as well.
None of the other models really develop it, which is good news now.
Based on the current trends it may develop, but is unlikely to directly impact land areas, however it's worth watching as the GFS does have it over or close to the Bahamas in the long range, then a hurricane into Jacksonville on July 16th. Caveat for anyone new, models at that long of range are typically extremely inaccurate, but it does indicate that the system is worth watching.
As it crosses and when/if the system actually forms (and when other models start to latch onto it) is what to watch for. Persistence is the key with tropical systems. Until then the model runs are a curiosity.
Invest 94L has become TD FOUR and the title has been updated accordingly
-Ciel
Edited by cieldumort (Wed Jul 05 2017 11:10 PM)
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