MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Re: East Atlantic Wave
Fri Jul 07 2017 08:05 AM
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Most of the models continue to show TD#4 dissipating, the NHC's discussion calls out the UKMET for possibly restrengthening it in 90-120 hours. Looking at the UKMET (click "ukmo UM" on https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/ ) it shows a Tropical Storm landfall near Flagler Beach in about 150 hours (July 13th)
Although other models don't show development, conditions are improving in them when it nears the Bahamas,
NHC Discussion:
The depression is expected to retain that status for another 36 h or
so while the vertical wind shear remains relatively low at less than
15 kt. By 36-48 h, westerly vertical wind shear is forecast to
increase to around 20 kt, which should induce gradual weakening. The
small cyclone is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by 48-72
h and dissipate by 96 h. There is one important caveat to note and
that is the UKMET model, which continues to show less weakening and
even strengthening in 96 and 120 h when the system is approaching
the Bahamas. Although the other global and regional models do not
show regeneration at this time, they do however show similar
improving upper-level wind conditions east of Florida by 120 h. For
now, the official intensity forecast remains similar to the previous
advisory and the consensus model IVCN through 48 h, after which the
forecast is lower than the intensity consensus.
---
IT's not unheard of for weak depressions to fall apart and regain later, 2005 has one of the best examples of that with "TD#10".
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