MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Re: East Atlantic Tropical Wave
Sun Jul 09 2017 11:50 PM
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0z gfs develops this on Tuesday, or at least closes it off, which is faster than before (For development) but then pretty much follows the 18z through to at least July 18th.
After that it diverges from the 18z run and starts heading northwest, hurricane near Nassau the morning of July 19th. Landfall near west palm beach as a 950 mb (major) hurricane on the morning of the 20th. Exits into the Gulf near Tampa late evening on the 20th. (still a major hurricane) Another landfall in Southeast Louisiana on the morning of the 22nd (as a major) the rides wnw inland into Louisiana, bringing a lot of surge toward NO, and many areas in Louisiana and the entire northern Gulf coastline.
That said, None of the other models does anything with the system, and nothing has developed, so I can't really buy into the GFS right now (Even in the 5 day range) Still not an invest, much less developed, much like TD#4 way too soon to tell.
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