FLHurricane.com: Franklin and 99L Problems

6 AM EDT Update 7 August 2017

Tropical storm Franklin has a small chance to become a hurricane before landfall in the Yucatan, and the government of Mexico has put up a hurricane watch to reflect this. Landfall for the Yucatan is around midnight tonight (CDT), once back over the open water it has a second chance to strengthen.

Invest 99L is in a bad spot for development right now, it likely won't develop before passing north of the Caribbean. However it should be watched as long as it could potentially develop later.

Flhurricane Radar recording of Belize Radar for Franklin's approach
Webcams:
Mahahual / Costa Maya Webcam Recording
Xel Ha Webcam Recording

10:45PM EDT Update 6 August 2017

Ptnl SEVEN has become Tropical Storm Franklin, the sixth named storm, and seventh tropical cyclone of the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Only four other years have had six Named Storms by this date in the Atlantic basin: 1936, 1959, 2005 and 2012. (Cr. Philip Klotzbach)
-Ciel

3:30PM EDT Update 6 August 2017
Invest 90L is very close to meeting the qualifications to be considered a tropical cyclone, and advisories are likely to be issued soon on SEVEN. Interests in the western Caribbean should prepare for tropical storm conditions early next week. A hurricane prior to crossing into the Bay of Campche is also not out of the question. The next name on the list is Franklin. Not to be confused with the former NHC forecaster.

Elsewhere, 99L in the central Tropical Atlantic appears to be succumbing to dry air and shear, but could pull out of that region later in the new week and still needs to be monitored.
- Ciel

Original Entry

August beings the ramp up in earnest into the peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season toward the climatological peak, which is the second half of August and most of September. This is the time of year where we watch all areas in the tropics and the most surprises tend to happen. It's also the time when conditions tend to be the best for development, and this year is no exception to that.

In the far east Atlantic, a wave has emerged from Africa in a very good position to develop, and because of this the National Hurricane Center requested an investigation area be put on it almost immediately. This system, tagged as 99L now has a 50% chance for development and multiple model support for it, so it's likely by the weekend we'll have a depression or named storm to track across the Atlantic. This does not guarantee a system will make it across, but history tells us that everything this time of year should be monitored closely.

If it were to develop and maintain itself it would likely be closest to the Caribbean in the middle of next week, and closer to the US late next week. See the forecast lounge for long range discussion and speculation on the system. There are factors that could keep it weak and hamper development, so out this far its impossible to say where or how strong it could be.

There may be other areas to track next week as well, watch for a potential area near the Yucatan / Bay of Campeche.
Flhurricane Radar recording of Belize Radar for Franklin's approach
Webcams:
Mahahual / Costa Maya Webcam Recording
Xel Ha Webcam Recording

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