The convection on the northwest side of Irma towards south Florida has really fired up tonight, usually a sign the ridge may be eroding, expect Irma to slow more and start the turn in the morning or so, it's going to be a nail biter to exactly where it makes landfall, but the surge, check the Inundation map (hasn't quite updated for 11 yet) to check if you are in it or not.
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Generated May 12, 2024, 4:06:53 PM EDT
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center