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| #1003676 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:54 PM 05.Jun.2020) TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Cristobal Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 400 PM CDT Fri Jun 05 2020 The center of the tropical cyclone has moved into the Gulf of Mexico to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Earlier scatterometer and surface synoptic data indicated that the system had already re-strengthened into a tropical storm. The system has been exhibiting fairly well-defined convective banding over the northern and eastern portions of the circulation. However, the central convection is minimal at this time and upper-level outflow is being restricted over the southwestern quadrant due to a trough over the Bay of Campeche. The current intensity is kept at 35 kt in agreement with the earlier observations. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the storm in a few hours, which should provide a good estimate of Cristobal`s strength. Although the cyclone will be traversing fairly warm waters during the next couple of days, dry mid-level air and some southwesterly shear is expected to limit intensification. The official intensity forecast is about the same as the previous ones and close to the model consensus. Cristobal has moved a little faster over the past several hours, and the current motion is estimated to be northward at 11 kt. For the next couple of days, the cyclone should continue to move generally northward through a weakness between subtropical high pressure areas. A bend toward the north-northwest is forecast just after landfall on the northern Gulf Coast due to the slight building of a ridge to the northeast of Cristobal. The size of the wind field and timing of the new track forecast require the issuance of storm surge and tropical storm warnings for a portion of the northern Gulf of Mexico coast at this time. Key Messages: 1. Damaging and deadly flooding was already occurring in portions of Mexico and Central America. Cristobal is expected to produce additional extreme rainfall amounts through the end of the week. The heaviest additional rainfall is expected over far southern Mexico and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, while also extending along the Pacific coast from Chiapas to Guatemala and El Salvador. This rainfall could cause widespread life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Refer to products from your local weather office for more information. 2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, and a Storm Surge Warning has been issued for those areas. Life-threatening storm surge remains possible along the Florida Big Bend and in other portions of southern and southeastern Louisiana where a Storm Surge Watch is in effect. Residents in these locations should follow advice given by local emergency officials. 3. Tropical storm force winds are expected by late Saturday night along the northern Gulf Coast from southeastern Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle, including metropolitan New Orleans, and a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for this area. These winds will arrive well in advance of and extend well east of Cristobals center. 4. Heavy rainfall will spread into portions of the Gulf Coast, from east Texas to Florida this weekend into early next week, with areas of flash flooding. Significant flooding will be possible on smaller tributaries, especially where heavier rainfall occurs over portions of Louisiana and Mississippi. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 21.4N 89.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 22.9N 90.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 24.9N 90.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 26.7N 90.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 28.5N 90.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 08/0600Z 30.4N 91.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 72H 08/1800Z 32.8N 92.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 09/1800Z 39.5N 91.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 10/1800Z 50.0N 85.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster Pasch |