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| #1003796 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:51 AM 06.Jun.2020) TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Cristobal Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 1000 AM CDT Sat Jun 06 2020 Cristobal`s satellite presentation continues to lack the appearance of a classic tropical cyclone, with a large curved band over the northern semicircle and little deep convection near the center. The latest flight-level and SFMR-observed surface wind observations from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft support a current intensity of 45 kt. Based on the poorly-organized state of the system, some dry air entrainment, and interaction with an upper-level low, only some slow strengthening is forecast, as in the previous advisories. The NHC intensity forecast remains in good agreement with the model consensus. The storm is moving northward at a slightly slower 10 kt. There has not been much change in the track forecast or forecast reasoning. Cristobal should continue northward through a weakness in the subtropical ridge until tomorrow evening, bringing the center to the northern Gulf coast in about 36 hours. Later, a turn to the north-northwest, and then back to the north is forecast as the cyclone moves between a mid-level ridge and a trough approaching the central United States. In 3-4 days, the post-tropical system should accelerate north-northeastward on the east side of the trough and move into Canada. Cristobal is likely to remain a broad and asymmetric storm when it makes landfall. Therefore, users are urged to not focus on the exact forecast path as the associated winds, storm surge, and rainfall will extend well to the east of the center. Key Messages: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for those areas. Life-threatening storm surge remains possible in other portions of southern and southeastern Louisiana where a Storm Surge Watch is in effect. Residents in these locations should follow advice given by local emergency officials. 2. Tropical storm force winds are expected by late tonight along the northern Gulf Coast from central Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle, including metropolitan New Orleans, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for this area. These winds will arrive well in advance of and extend well east of Cristobals center. 3. Heavy rainfall will continue across west and north Florida today, spreading from east to west across the eastern and central Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle into Louisiana today into Sunday. This heavy rain will move into the Lower Mississippi Valley on Monday. Significant flooding will be possible on smaller streams, especially where heavier rainfall occurs over portions of the Gulf Coast and Lower Mississippi Valley. 4. Damaging and deadly flooding was already occurring in portions of Mexico and Central America. Additional rainfall from Cristobal will continue to slowly subside, however life-threatening flash floods and mudslides will still be possible through today. Refer to products from your local weather office for more information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 24.2N 90.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 25.6N 90.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 27.4N 90.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 29.3N 90.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...ON THE COAST 48H 08/1200Z 31.5N 91.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 60H 09/0000Z 34.5N 92.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 09/1200Z 38.0N 92.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 10/1200Z 47.5N 86.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 11/1200Z...MERGED WITH EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch |