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| #1005862 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:35 PM 23.Jun.2020) TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Dolly Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042020 1100 PM AST Tue Jun 23 2020 Dolly's deep convection is diminishing as the cyclone begins to move over colder waters to the north of the Gulf Stream. Given the decreased convection, it is assumed that the circulation is gradually spinning down and the current intensity is therefore estimated to be near 35 kt. This is also consistent with data from a recent scatterometer overpass. Within 24 hours, the system will be moving over SSTs of around 15 deg C, and the cyclone should have degenerated into remnant low devoid of significant convection. The global models forecast the system to open up into a trough in 36 hours or so and the official forest calls for dissipation by 48 hours, if not sooner. The cyclone continues to move east-northeastward, or around 060/9 kt. There is no change to the track forecast reasoning, Dolly is expected to turn northeastward with an increase in forward speed as it moves with the southwesterly mid-level flow to the southeast of the main branch of mid-latitude westerlies. The official track forecast lies close to the previous one and is on top of the latest dynamical model consensus, TVCA, track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 40.5N 60.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 41.8N 58.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 43.9N 55.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 25/1200Z 45.8N 52.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch |