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| #1007281 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:41 AM 05.Jul.2020) TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Five Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052020 1100 AM AST Sun Jul 05 2020 The depression is accelerating northeastward, away from Bermuda. It continues to produce deep convection primarily to the south of its center with little change in organization since yesterday. The most recent TAFB Dvorak classification supports maintaining the intensity at 30 kt. Scatterometer data that will likely arrive after the issuance of this advisory may provide more information about the current surface wind structure of the cyclone. No substantial changes were made to the NHC forecast. The cyclone will continue to accelerate northeastward or east-northeastward during the next day or two. It is possible that the depression could open into a trough at some point today as its forward speed increases, but most of the dynamical guidance indicates it will persist long enough to undergo extratropical transition on Monday. Minimal strengthening is possible today as the forward speed of the depression increases and it begins to get some positive baroclinic support. In fact, nearly all of the global models indicate that the system will produce tropical-storm-force winds around the time it becomes fully extratropical, and this is reflected in the official forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 34.5N 63.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 36.6N 59.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 39.5N 53.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 42.5N 46.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 07/1200Z 45.8N 39.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky |