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| #1009259 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:52 PM 23.Jul.2020) TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Eight Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082020 1000 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020 Satellite imagery indicates that the depression is getting better organized, with a better-defined center located near the northeastern end of a broadly curved convective band. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB have increased to 30 kt, and that will be the initial intensity for this advisory. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute to investigate the depression. The initial motion is west-northwestward or 285/8 kt. A mid-level ridge over the central United States is the predominant steering influence, and the global models forecast this ridge to build during the several days. This should cause the depression to turn more westward by 48-60 h and south of west after about 72 h. The track guidance is in good agreement with that scenario, and the new NHC forecast track, which has only minor adjustments from the previous track, lies near the various consensus models. The new forecast track has the center making landfall along the Texas coast between 48-60 h. The depression is in an environment of light shear and over warm sea surface temperatures, so at least slow strengthening is expected until landfall. The new intensity forecast, which lies a little below the intensity consensus, now calls for a peak intensity of 45 kt before landfall. Data from the Hurricane Hunter will give more details on whether the structure of the cyclone has improved or not, which will be incorporated into the next forecast cycle. Key Messages 1. The depression is expected to strengthen and it could bring tropical-storm-force winds to portions of the Texas coast, where a tropical storm watch is in effect. 2. The depression is expected to produce heavy rains along the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to the Lower Texas Coast. These rains could result in flash flooding and minor river flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 26.3N 90.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 26.7N 91.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 27.4N 93.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 27.8N 94.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 28.0N 96.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 26/0000Z 28.0N 98.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 72H 26/1200Z 27.9N 99.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 27/1200Z 27.5N 101.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 28/1200Z 27.0N 103.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven |