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| #1009491 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:42 PM 24.Jul.2020) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Gonzalo Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020 1100 PM AST Fri Jul 24 2020 Although there has been a recent increase in deep convection in association with Gonzalo, data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft continues to show that the tropical cyclone is poorly organized. The aircraft has not yet found winds to support tropical storm strength, however the advisory intensity will remain a possibly generous 35-kt until the aircraft completes its mission overnight. There is also some possibility that this recent convective burst could result in some short-term re-organization. However, with the system losing organization over the past day or so, it is becoming less likely that the small cyclone will be able to significantly recover due to the nearby dry mid-level environment. The updated NHC intensity forecast no longer calls for any re-strengthening, and Gonzalo could even become a tropical depression before reaching the Windward Islands. After that time, dry air and Gonzalo`s close proximity to the coast of Venezuela are likely to cause the system to weaken and degenerate into a trough of low pressure. The NHC forecast now calls for dissipation by 60 h, but this could occur sooner. Gonzalo continues moving generally westward or 270/15 kt. The system is not expected to gain much latitude as it should continue moving westward to west-northwestward within the low-level easterly flow. The track guidance continues to trend southward and the NHC track forecast has again been shifted in that direction. The new track lies to the south of the consensus aids, closest to the GFS and UKMET ensemble means. Key Messages 1. Gonzalo is forecast to bring tropical storm conditions to a portion of the southern Windward Islands Saturday and Saturday night. Tropical Storm Warnings are currently in effect for some of the islands. Interests in the southern Windward Islands should monitor the progress of Gonzalo and follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Gonzalo is expected to produce heavy rain over portions of the southern Windward Islands. This could lead to life-threatening flash flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 10.0N 57.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 10.4N 59.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 11.3N 62.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 12.2N 66.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 27/0000Z 12.7N 69.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown |