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| #1009530 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:47 AM 25.Jul.2020) TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Hanna Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082020 400 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2020 Hanna continues to become better organized on satellite images, with an extensive area of cold cloud tops in both its Central Dense Overcast and in banding features over the eastern and southern parts of the circulation. Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are at 55 kt, but with the continued increase in organization over the past couple of hours, the current intensity is set at 60 kt. This is also in agreement with the latest objective Dvorak estimate from UW-CIMSS. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Hanna later this morning which should provide a more precise intensity estimate. Since Hanna should remain in an atmospheric and oceanic environment that is conducive for strengthening up to landfall, the cyclone should become a hurricane very soon. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the model consensus. The center is moving just slightly south of due west or around 265/8 kt. A mid-level subtropical high to the north of Hanna has built a little and this should result in a turn toward the west-southwest during the next 12-24 hours. After landfall, the track guidance shows a continued west-southwestward motion until dissipation over the mountainous terrain of northeastern Mexico. The official track forecast has been adjusted just a bit to the south of the previous forecast. This is just north of the dynamical model consensus and just south of the latest ECMWF track. Based on the new official forecast track, the Storm Surge Warning has been extended southward to Port Mansfield, Texas. Key Messages 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along the Texas coast from Port Mansfield to Sargent, where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in these locations should follow advice given by local emergency officials. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected along the Texas coast from Port Mansfield to Mesquite Bay, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area this morning. 3. Hanna is expected to produce heavy rains across portions of southern Texas and northeastern Mexico. These rains could result in life-threatening flash flooding and isolated minor to moderate river flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 27.0N 95.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 26.9N 97.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 26.5N 98.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 36H 26/1800Z 26.0N 100.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 27/0600Z 25.5N 101.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch |