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| #1010166 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:50 AM 29.Jul.2020) TCMAT4 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020 1500 UTC WED JUL 29 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS AS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ALSO ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA * GUADELOUPE...MARTINIQUE...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. BARTHELEMY * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS * ST. MAARTEN * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO CAUCEDO EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO AND THEN WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER * NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC * TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE SOUTHERN HAITI BORDER EASTWARD TO CABO CAUCEDO * CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 63.7W AT 29/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 75 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......240NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..400NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 63.7W AT 29/1500Z AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 62.8W FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 16.9N 66.4W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...210NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 18.5N 69.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...180NE 40SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 19.9N 73.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 40SE 0SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 21.4N 76.0W...NEAR THE COAST MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 40SE 0SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 22.7N 78.3W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...140NE 60SE 30SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 23.8N 80.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 30SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 26.3N 82.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 29.0N 83.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 63.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 29/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN |