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| #1010485 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:57 PM 31.Jul.2020) TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102020 800 PM CVT Fri Jul 31 2020 Deep convection has recently developed closer to the center of a small area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles east of the Cabo Verde Islands. Earlier ASCAT data indicated peak winds of around 25 kt, but given the small size of the system and the likely undersampling of the instrument, the initial intensity is set at 30 kt. This is in line with a Dvorak classification of T2.0 from SAB. With the recent increase in convective organization, there is a potential for the depression to become a short-lived tropical storm tonight. After that time, the environment is forecast to become increasingly hostile as cooler waters and less favorable thermodynamic conditions lie ahead. As a result, weakening should begin on Saturday and the system is forecast to become a remnant low Saturday night and dissipate shortly thereafter. The system is moving slightly west of due north, or 355/8 kt. The depression is forecast to turn northwestward tonight, then west-northwestward to westward on Saturday and Saturday night as it moves around the eastern side of a large cyclonic gyre over the far eastern Atlantic. The track guidance is in relatively good agreement, and the NHC forecast is near the TVCA multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/2100Z 15.9N 20.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 17.3N 21.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 18.5N 23.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 18.8N 25.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown |