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#1012005 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:50 AM 12.Aug.2020)
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020
1100 AM AST Wed Aug 12 2020

Satellite imagery indicates that the depression is a little better
organized than 24 h ago, with a ragged central convective feature
and a curved convective band in the northwestern semicircle.
However, recent scatterometer data show this has not yet resulted
in strengthening, with 25-30 kt winds occuring to the north of the
center. Based on the scatterometer, the initial intensity remains
30 kt.

The initial motion remains a little north of due west, or
280/13 kt. There is little change to the forecast philosophy or
the forecast track since the last advisory. A westward motion is
expected to continue through tonight due to easterly flow on the
south side of a strong subtropical ridge situated to the north of
the cyclone. After that, the global models forecast a slight
weakness to develop within the ridge, allowing the cyclone to turn
west-northwestward, with that motion continuing through the end of
the forecast period. The new NHC forecast is just to the left of
the various consensus models.

The southeasterly shear that has so far prevented intensification
should diminish in the next 12 h or so, which should allow the
cyclone to become a tropical storm. The system should then remain
in light to moderate shear through about 48 h, and the intensity
forecast calls for a peak intensity of 50 kt during that time.
Later in the forecast period, moderate to strong southwesterly
shear should develop over the cyclone due to an upper-level trough
over the southwestern Atlantic. This shear should cause the system
to weaken, and several of the global models forecast it to
degenerate to a tropical wave before 120 h. The new intensity
forecast will not call for that quick of a demise, but will show
weakening due to the shear after 72 h. The new forecast, which has
only minor changes from the previous forecast, is near the upper
edge of the intensity guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 12.4N 44.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 12.8N 46.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 13.5N 48.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 14.5N 50.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 14/1200Z 15.7N 53.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 15/0000Z 17.0N 55.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 15/1200Z 18.2N 58.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 16/1200Z 20.5N 63.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 17/1200Z 23.5N 66.5W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven