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| #1012182 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:42 PM 13.Aug.2020) TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Josephine Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020 1100 PM AST Thu Aug 13 2020 Enhanced infrared GOES 16 imagery and a recent ASCAT-A overpass indicated that the center of circulation is still located to the south of a rather shapeless deep convective mass. Recent images show a small burst developing just to the west of the center, but the associated cloud tops are already warming. Based on the overall cloud pattern, light southerly shear and a dry, relatively stable surrounding environment continue to hamper significant development. There were no changes to the satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, and the initial intensity is once again held at a possibly generous 40 kt. Josephine`s relatively small window of opportunity for further strengthening is within the next 18 to 24 hours. The forecast still shows a peak intensity of 50 kt at the time and is above all of the skilled guidance. After which, strong southwesterly shear produced by a northeast to southwest oriented deep-layer mid-Atlantic trough is expected to induce gradual weakening. This inhibiting upper wind pattern is forecast to affect the cyclone through day 5. The NHC forecast through 60 hours is based on the better performing IVCN consensus which consists of the Decay SHIPS, LGEM and the hurricane models. Beyond mid-period, the forecast is basically a blend of the IVCN and the global models which now shows Josephine degenerating into a remnant low at day 5. The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 300/15 kt within the southwestern periphery of a subtropical high situated to the northeast of Josephine. Weakening of the western portion of the ridge should cause Josephine to turn northwestward in 3 days, followed by a turn generally northward at day 4 in response to a major shortwave trough approaching the east coast of the U.S. and the western Atlantic. The official forecast is a little faster than the previous one through 5 days and is once again close to the HFIP Corrected Consensus model. Josephine should pass far enough to the northeast of the Leeward Islands over the weekend to prevent major impacts. However, interests in the area should continue to monitor its progress until the storm has passed north of that area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 14.8N 52.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 15.8N 54.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 17.3N 56.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 18.8N 59.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 20.0N 62.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 16/1200Z 21.3N 64.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 17/0000Z 22.8N 66.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 18/0000Z 26.0N 67.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 19/0000Z 29.5N 66.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Roberts |