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| #1012207 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:42 AM 14.Aug.2020) TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Josephine Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020 500 AM AST Fri Aug 14 2020 As has been the case for the last couple of days, the center of the tropical storm is displaced to the south of the main area of deep convection. Some new convective cells have been forming nearer to the estimated center, but the overall cloud pattern is quite ragged-looking at this time. ASCAT data from a few hours ago indicate that the intensity is near 35 kt, which is consistent with the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. NOAA data buoy 41040 confirmed that the system still has a closed circulation since it reported light westerly winds while the center of Josephine passed to its north. An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the storm later today. Josephine is beginning to move into an environment of increasing vertical shear associated with a large upper-tropospheric trough over the western Atlantic. Therefore, the window of opportunity for strengthening is closing soon. The official intensity forecast allows for some intensification during the next 24 hours before the upper-level winds become prohibitively strong. However, the NHC forecast is now above most of the model intensity guidance through 72 hours. The storm continues its west-northwestward motion and is moving at about 300/15 kt. Josephine should continue this general motion as it approaches a weakness in the subtropical ridge in 48 hours or so. Then, the cyclone should turn northward and move through the weakness in 3-4 days. Late in the forecast period, Josephine or its remnants are expected to turn north-northeastward while it approaches the higher-latitude westerlies. The official track forecast is essentially the same as the previous one, and also lies close to the latest corrected multi-model consensus. Josephine should pass far enough to the northeast of the Leeward Islands over the weekend to prevent major impacts. However, interests in the area should continue to monitor its progress until the storm has passed north of that area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 15.3N 53.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 16.5N 55.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 18.0N 58.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 19.1N 60.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 20.3N 62.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 16/1800Z 21.6N 65.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 17/0600Z 23.1N 66.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 18/0600Z 26.0N 67.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 19/0600Z 30.0N 66.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch |