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#1012293 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:36 PM 14.Aug.2020)
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Kyle Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122020
1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020

There has not been much change with Kyle during the past several
hours. The tropical storm continues to feel the influence of
strong westerly vertical wind shear, with the low-level center
exposed to the west of the main area of deep convection. Despite
the system`s poor appearance, a ship recently reported winds around
40 kt about 70 n mi southeast of the center. Based on that data
and the satellite intensity estimates, the initial intensity is
nudged up to 40 kt.

The tropical storm is moving fairly quickly toward the
east-northeast away from the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast, with the
latest initial motion estimated to be 065/14 kt. A slightly faster
east-northeastward to eastward motion is expected during the next
few days as the storm becomes more embedded in the mid-latitude
westerlies. The track models are in relatively good agreement, and
this forecast lies close to the middle of the guidance envelope.

The ongoing westerly shear is only expected to get stronger with
time, therefore, significant intensification is not expected.
However, the global models suggest that a little strengthening is
likely during the next day or two while Kyle moves along the
northern wall of the Gulf Stream current and interacts with an
upper-level trough. Kyle is forecast to transition to an
extratropical cyclone in about 48 hours when it is expected to be
north of the Gulf Stream over cool waters and in a drier
environment. The extratropical system should slowly decay until it
is absorbed by a larger extratropical low in a little more than 3
days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 38.3N 70.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 39.3N 66.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 40.7N 62.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 42.0N 58.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 43.1N 54.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 17/1200Z 43.6N 48.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 18/0000Z 43.5N 43.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi