Show Selection:
Show plain - Location:
#1012324 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:45 AM 15.Aug.2020)
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Kyle Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122020
500 AM AST Sat Aug 15 2020

The low-level center of Kyle continues to be exposed to the west of
the deep convection, as strong westerly shear prevails. Although
the satellite appearance is not that impressive, the circulation is
well intact as indicated by a recent ASCAT overpass that reveals
that the initial intensity remains 40 kt.

Kyle is currently moving east-northeast at 18 kt, and away from the
U.S. coast. This general motion is expected to continue for the
next couple of days, with a turn to the east and an increase in
forward speed thereafter as the system remains embedded in the
mid-latitude westerlies. The official forecast track is little
changed from the previous one, and is near the tightly clustered
track guidance.

Only slight strengthening is expected over the next 24 h as the
cyclone crosses the warm Gulf Stream waters and interacts with an
upper-level trough, while battling increasing westerly shear. The
forecast track takes Kyle over much cooler waters starting in about
24 h, and by that time, the system is expected to begin interacting
with a frontal boundary to its north. This should initiate an
extratropical transition that is expected to be complete by 36 h. It
should be noted that both the FSU GFS-based phase space forecast
and SHIPS guidance suggest that this transition could be completed
sooner than indicated. After transition, the extratropical system
should slowly decay until it is absorbed by a larger extratropical
low in a little more than 3 days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 38.7N 68.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 39.7N 64.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 41.0N 60.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 42.1N 56.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 17/0600Z 42.8N 52.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 17/1800Z 43.2N 46.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 18/0600Z 42.9N 40.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto