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| #1012467 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:03 AM 16.Aug.2020) TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Josephine Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020 500 AM AST Sun Aug 16 2020 Josephine`s low-level center has raced out over 100 n mi to the west of a remnant area of deep convection, which itself is shrinking and becoming more disorganized. Due to the loss of organization, it is assumed that Josephine`s maximum winds have decreased, and the initial intensity is set at 35 kt, which matches the latest Current Intensity estimates. Analyses from the UW-CIMSS indicate that Josephine is now being pounded by about 35 kt of southwesterly shear, and a zone of even higher shear exists to the northwest of the cyclone. Therefore, continued weakening is expected, and Josephine could lose all of its organized deep convection and become a remnant low by 36 hours, if not sooner. The NHC forecast holds a remnant low after 36 hours until the end of the forecast period, but it is entirely possible that the hostile conditions will cause Josephine to dissipate at any time, with the circulation opening up into a trough. The initial motion is still west-northwestward, or 285/13 kt, although this heading is a bit to the left of the previous motion, suggesting even further that Josephine is becoming a shallower cyclone steered by lower-level winds. Still, there should be enough low- to mid-level troughing moving off the U.S. east coast later today and on Monday to cause Josephine, or its remnants, to recurve toward the north and northeast by day 5. The track guidance agrees on this scenario, although the newest official forecast is a little slower and to the right of the previous prediction. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Josephine is passing far enough to the north of the Leeward Islands to prevent major impacts. However, interests there should continue to monitor its progress until the storm has passed north of that area. 2. Locally heavy rainfall is possible in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico as Josephine passes by to the northeast. Isolated minor flooding is possible in Puerto Rico through Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 20.3N 64.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 21.1N 65.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 22.4N 67.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 23.8N 68.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/0600Z 25.4N 69.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 18/1800Z 27.0N 68.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/0600Z 28.2N 68.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/0600Z 30.0N 66.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 21/0600Z 31.0N 64.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg |