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| #1013038 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:47 PM 20.Aug.2020) TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fourteen Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 800 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020 ...DEPRESSION SHOWING SIGNS OF GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.7N 81.7W ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM ESE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...29 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Honduras/Nicaragua border westward to Punta Castilla Honduras * Bay Islands of Honduras * Puerto Cabezas Nicaragua northward to the Honduras/Nicaragua border A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. Additional watches or warnings, including for the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, may be required later this evening or tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen was located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 81.7 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 17 mph (29 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the west-northwest and northwest with a decrease in forward speed is forecast on Friday, with a general northwest motion continuing through at least Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of the system will move near or over extreme northern Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras, including the Bay Islands, on Friday and approach the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday. The center is then expected to cross the Yucatan Peninsula Saturday night and move into the south-central Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm on Friday. The system could be near or at hurricane strength when it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late Saturday. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area later tonight and early Friday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. These conditions will spread westward along the coast of Honduras within the warning area during the day on Friday. RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Sunday: Eastern portions of the Mexican states of Quintana Roo and Yucatan: 3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. This rainfall may result in areas of flash flooding. Honduras: 2 to 4 inches. Jamaica and northern Nicaragua: 1 to 2 inches. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart |