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| #1013509 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:56 PM 23.Aug.2020) TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Laura Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 500 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2020 ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS A SLIGHTLY STRONGER LAURA JUST SOUTH OF EASTERN CUBA... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING LIKELY OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...CUBA...AND JAMAICA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.5N 75.2W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF GUANTANAMO CUBA ABOUT 220 MI...350 KM SE OF CAMAGUEY CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Cayman Islands has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Little Cayman and Cayman Brac. The Tropical Storm Watch for the the Florida Keys north of Craig Key and for Florida Bay has been discontinued. The government of the Dominican Republic has discontinued all Tropical Storm Warnings for the Dominican Republic. The government of the Bahamas has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the Turks and Caicos Islands, and for the southeastern Bahamas except for Inagua and the Ragged Islands. The Tropical Storm Watch for the central Bahamas and Andros Island has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Entire coast of the Haiti * Inagua and the Ragged Islands in southeastern Bahamas * Little Cayman and Cayman Brac * Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Granma, Ciego De Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, La Habana, Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Florida Keys from Craig Key to Key West and the Dry Tortugas The Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 75.2 West. Laura is moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. A turn toward the northwest is foreast by Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Laura will move near or over southern coast Cuba tonight and Monday, and move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Monday night and Tuesday. Laura is expected to move over the central and northwestern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night and Wednesday. Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast while Laura moves near the southern coast of Cuba tonight. However, strengthening is forecast after the storm moves over the Gulf of Mexico, and Laura is forecast to become a hurricane late Tuesday or Tuesday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance aircraft data is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce the following storm total rainfall accumulations through Tuesday: Dominican Republic, Haiti, Jamaica, and Cuba: 4 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts of 12 inches. Cayman Islands: 2 to 4 inches, maximum amounts of 6 inches. Florida Keys, Turks and Caicos and southeast Bahamas: 1 to 2 inches. Across the Greater Antilles this heavy rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash and urban flooding, and the potential for mudslides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area in Haiti through this evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area in Cuba later tonight through Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Little Cayman and Cayman Brac on Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within portions of the watch area in the Florida Keys Monday. SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands. These swells are expected to spread across central and western Cuba, the central and northwestern Bahamas, and the Florida Keys during the next couple of days. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown |