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| #1013551 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:48 PM 23.Aug.2020) TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Laura Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 1100 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2020 ...LAURA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE NEAR EASTERN CUBA... ...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER EASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA.... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.1N 76.6W ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SE OF CAMAGUEY CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Dry Tortugas, Florida. The government of Haiti has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for all of Haiti. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Little Cayman and Cayman Brac * Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Granma, Ciego De Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, La Habana, Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth * Dry Tortugas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Florida Keys from Craig Key to Key West and the Dry Tortugas The Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was located near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 76.6 West. Laura is moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h) and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. A turn toward the northwest is forecast by Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Laura will move near or over the southern coast of Cuba tonight and Monday, and move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Monday night and Tuesday. Laura is expected to move over the central and northwestern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected, and Laura is forecast to become a hurricane by early Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce the following storm total rainfall accumulations through Tuesday: Western Haiti, Jamaica, and Cuba: 4 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts of 12 inches. Cayman Islands: 2 to 4 inches, maximum amounts of 6 inches. Florida Keys, Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Northwest Bahamas: 1 to 2 inches. Across the Greater Antilles this heavy rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash and urban flooding, and the potential for mudslides. From late Wednesday into Friday, Laura is expected to produce rainfall of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches across portions of the west-central U.S. Gulf Coast near the Texas and Louisiana border north into portions of the lower Mississippi Valley. This rainfall could cause widespread flash and urban flooding, small streams and tributaries to overflow their banks, and the possibility of some minor river flooding to this region. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread westward within the warning area in Cuba through Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Little Cayman, Cayman Brac, and the Dry Tortugas on Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within portions of the watch area in the Florida Keys Monday. SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands. These swells are expected to spread across central and western Cuba, the central and northwestern Bahamas, and the Florida Keys on Monday. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: An isolated tornado is possible across far southern Florida on Monday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |