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#1014815 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:49 AM 01.Sep.2020)
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Fifteen Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020
1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020

The depression has become better organized this morning with the
center embedded in the western side of a growing area of deep
convection. An earlier buoy report recorded adjusted maximum winds
of 32 kt, and roughly half of the estimates show that the depression
is a tropical storm. Conservatively, the winds will be held at 30
kt until we will see what the scatterometer shows this afternoon.
Increasing shear is expected to limit any significant strengthening,
although it does seem more likely than not that this system will
barely make it to a tropical storm later today. The shear is
forecast to get quite strong by tomorrow afternoon, so weakening is
anticipated by then, and persistence of that shear is expected to
cause the cyclone to decay into a remnant low in about 48 hours.
While the initial part of the forecast is a little higher than the
last one, this change is really in the noise level for intensity
prediction and is only noticeable because of the tropical storm
threshold.

The initial motion has turned toward the east-northeast or 060/12
kt. There is reasonable agreement among the guidance that this
motion will continue through tomorrow, and then become eastward
during the next 2-3 days around the northern side of the subtropical
ridge, followed by a northeastward turn by day 4. Similar to the
last forecast, most of the uncertainty is with the speed, rather
than the direction of the cyclone. The new forecast is closer to the
faster guidance and the previous NHC track prediction. Dissipation
is shown at 120h, although a few models have it occuring as early as
days 2-3.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 34.7N 73.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 35.6N 71.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 36.5N 68.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 37.2N 65.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 37.3N 62.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 04/0000Z 37.0N 59.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 04/1200Z 37.0N 57.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 05/1200Z 39.5N 52.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake