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#1014929 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:57 AM 02.Sep.2020)
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Nana Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162020
500 AM EDT Wed Sep 02 2020

Nana`s Central Dense Overcast has become a little better defined,
with cloud tops to -80 deg C or colder. Upper-level outflow
continues to be somewhat inhibited over the northern portion of the
circulation. SFMR-observed surface winds and adjusted flight-level
winds from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicated an
intensity of 50 kt. Although northerly shear is likely to limit
intensification, the environment is conducive enough for Nana to
strengthen into a hurricane later today. The official intensity
forecast is close to the Decay-SHIPS prediction based on the ECMWF
global model forecast fields.

Center fixes from the aircraft indicate that the motion continues
to be generally westward, or 270/16 kt, to the south of a strong
mid-level high pressure area. Over the next couple of days, the
ridge is expected to be maintained or to build a little more to the
west. This should keep Nana on a westward or slightly south-of-west
track until it moves into Central America. The official track
forecast is close to the previous one and also very close to the
latest Florida State University Superensemble prediction.

Observations from the aircraft and NOAA data buoy 42057 indicate
that Nana is a rather small tropical cyclone, with
tropical-storm-force winds extending 60 n mi or less from the
center.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical Storm Nana is forecast to be a hurricane as it
approaches the coast, and interests in Honduras, Guatemala,
Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula should closely monitor the
progress of this storm. Strong winds, dangerous storm surge and
very heavy rainfall causing flash flooding are becoming more likely
from Nana.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 17.0N 82.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 16.9N 85.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 16.8N 87.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 16.5N 89.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
48H 04/0600Z 16.4N 92.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 04/1800Z 16.1N 93.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch