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#1014930 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:57 AM 02.Sep.2020)
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Omar Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020
500 AM AST Wed Sep 02 2020

UW-CIMSS analyses and SHIPS model diagnostics all indicate that
Omar is being blasted by 40-50 kt of northwesterly shear, and yet a
sizable area of deep convection has been hanging close to the
low-level center for some time now. Based on last evening`s ASCAT
pass and the most recent satellite classifications, Omar`s initial
intensity remains 35 kt. Despite the shear magnitude, Omar could
maintain tropical storm intensity for another 24 hours or so while
the shear direction remains out of the northwest and the cyclone is
over the warm Gulf Stream. During this period, the NHC forecast is
close to the ICON intensity consensus and the HCCA aid. After 24
hours, Omar should begin moving over waters with lower ocean heat
content, and the shear is forecast to veer more out of the north.
Both of these factors are expected to cause weakening, with Omar
likely to lose its deep convection and become a remnant low in about
2 days. Global models indicate that the remnant low should
dissipate ahead of a cold front by day 4, which is now shown in the
NHC forecast, although the ECMWF shows this happening a day earlier.

Omar is moving toward the east-northeast (070/12 kt), embedded
within the mid-latitude westerlies north of the subtropical ridge.
This steering pattern is forecast to keep Omar on an
east-northeastward or eastward path until it dissipates, but a
breakdown of the zonal flow should cause the cyclone`s forward
speed to slow down gradually during the next 2-3 days. The updated
NHC track forecast has been shifted southward a bit in the
direction of the multi-model consensus aids and the GFS and ECMWF
solutions, which both lie along the southern edge of the guidance
envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 36.2N 68.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 36.6N 66.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 36.8N 64.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 36.6N 61.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 36.3N 59.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 04/1800Z 36.5N 57.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 05/0600Z 37.1N 56.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg